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278 Fundamentals of Ocean Renewable Energy

FIG. 10.4 Future changes in spatially averaged monthly wind speeds over the United Kingdom for
a range of climate scenarios. For IPCC AR4 climate change scenarios (A1B, A2, B1), see Table 10.1.
(Based on a figured presented in L.C. Cradden, G.P. Harrison, J.P. Chick, Will climate change
impact on wind power development in the UK?, Clim. Change 115 (3–4) (2012) 837–852.)

TABLE 10.1 Annual Capacity Factor for Two UK Wind Farms for Baseline
(1961–90) and Future (2081–2100) IPCC AR4 Scenarios
Annual Capacity Factor (%)
Scenario Description North Hoyle Kentish Flats
Baseline 1961–90 41.6 35.0
A2 A very heterogeneous world, with an 41.7 33.9
emphasis on self-reliance and
preservation of local identities.
Economic development and
technological change are fragmented
A1B Rapid economic growth and rapid 41.7 34.3
introduction of new and more
efficient technologies, with a balance
between fossil-intensive and nonfossil
energy sources
B1 Rapid change in economic structures 41.3 34.2
towards a service and information
economy, with reductions in material
intensity and introduction of clean
and resource-efficient technologies

Source: Data from Cradden et al. [9].