Page 411 - Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production Second Edition
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398                                                Managing the Surface Facilities


          16.2.3. Managing operating expenditure
          During the producing life, most of the money spent on the field will be on OPEX.
          This includes costs such as
            maintenance of equipment offshore and onshore
            transport of products and people
            salaries of all staff in the company, housing, schooling
            rentals of offices and services
            payment of contractors
            training.
             In Section 14.2, Chapter 14, it was suggested that OPEX is estimated at the
          development planning stage based on a percentage of cumulative CAPEX (fixed
          OPEX) plus a cost per barrel of hydrocarbon production (variable OPEX). This
          method has been widely applied, with the percentages and cost per barrel values
          based on previous experience in the area. One obvious flaw in this method is that as
          oil production declines, so does the estimate of OPEX, which is not the common
          experience; as equipment ages it requires more maintenance and breaks down more
          frequently.
             Figure 16.11 demonstrates that despite the anticipation of an incremental project,
          for example gas compression during the decline period, the actual OPEX diverges
          significantly from the estimate during the decline period. Underestimates of
          50–100% have been common. This difference does not dramatically affect the NPVof
          the project economics when discounting back to a reference date at the development
          planning stage, because the later expenditure is heavily discounted. However, for a
          company managing the project during the decline period, the difference is very real;
          the company is faced with actual increases in the expected OPEX of up to 100%.



                                            abandonment      ACTUAL
                                               cost


                      Opex
                       ($)


                                                             ESTIMATED

                                          planned
                                      incremental project

                                    Producing lifetime

                          First
                                                     Abandonment
                        Production
          Figure 16.11  Actual vs. estimated OPEX.
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