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Predicting Operator Capacity for Supervisory Control of Multiple UAVs  21
                           Results and Discussion. In order to determine whether or not the revised
                           fan-out prediction in (3) provided a more realistic estimate than the original
                           fan-out (1), the number of vehicles controlled in the experiment was held con-
                           stant (four) across all levels of automation. Thus if our proposed prediction
                           was accurate, we should be able to predict the actual number of vehicles the
                           operators were controlling. As previously discussed, all times were measured
                           through interactions with the interface which generally included mouse move-
                           ments, selection of objects such as vehicles and targets for more information,
                           commanding vehicles to change states, and the generation of communication
                           messages.
                              Neglect time was counted as the time when operators were not needed by
                           any single vehicle, and thus were monitoring the system and engaging in sec-
                           ondary tasks such as responding to communications. Because loiter paths were
                           part of the preplanned missions, oftentimes to provide for buffer periods, loiter
                           times were generally counted as neglect times. Loitering was only counted as
                           a wait time when a vehicle was left in a loiter pattern past a planned event
                           due to operator oversight. Interaction time was counted as any time an oper-
                           ator recognized that a vehicle required intervention and specifically worked
                           towards resolving that task. This was measured by mouse movements, clicks,
                           and message generations. The method of measuring NT and IT, while not
                           exactly the same as [11], was driven by experimental complexity in represent-
                           ing a more realistic environment. However, the same general concepts apply in
                           that neglect time is that time when each vehicle operated independently and
                           interaction time is that time one or more vehicles required operator attention.
                              As discussed previously, wait times were only calculated when one or more
                           vehicle required attention. Wait time due to interactions (e.g., the time it
                           took an operator to replan a new route once a UAV penetrated a threat area)
                           was subsumed in interaction time. Wait time due to queuing occurred when,
                           for example, a second UAV also required replanning to avoid an emergent
                           threat and the operator had to attend to the first vehicle’s problem before
                           immediately moving to the second. Wait time due to the loss of situation
                           awareness was measured when one or more vehicles required attention but was
                           not noticed by the operator. This was the most difficult wait time to capture
                           since operators had to show clear evidence that they did not recognize a UAV
                           required intervention. Examples of wait time due to loss of situation awareness
                           include the time UAVs spend flying into threat areas with no path correction,
                           and leaving UAVs in loiter patterns when they should be redirected.
                              Figures 5 and 6 demonstrate how the wait times varied both between the
                           two fan-out equations as well the increasing levels of automation under low
                           and high workload conditions respectively. Using the interaction, neglect, and
                           wait times calculated from the actual experiment, the solid line represents the
                           predictions using (1), the dashed line represents the predictions of (2), and the
                           dotted line shows how many UAVs the operators were actually controlling,
                           which was held constant at four.
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