Page 204 - Materials Chemistry, Second Edition

L1644_C05.fm Page 177 Monday, October 20, 2003 12:02 PM

FIGURE 5.1 Crystal Ball screenshot (activated cells of an Excel spreadsheet, the result of a
sensitivity analysis and the final provision).

5.4.2 FRAMEWORK FOR UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT BY MONTE
CARLO SIMULATION IN ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT ANALYSIS
Based on the information about previous studies on uncertainty evaluation in envi-
ronmental impact analysis methods and the knowledge of the MC simulation tech-
nique, the following general strategy for the assessment of uncertainties in impact
assessment studies may be established:

• Classification of data (extensively available, based on little information
and data that can be ignored)
• Identification of probability distribution for considered data
• Monte Carlo simulation
• Sensitivity analysis
• Analysis and discussion of results

As mentioned briefly earlier, by means of a sensitivity analysis it is possible to
show which parameters are most relevant for the final result. If small modifications
of one parameter characterized by a probability distribution strongly influence the
final result, it can be concluded that the sensitivity of the considered variable is
elevated for the relation between parameter and final result. This information is

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