Page 201 - Principles of Applied Reservoir Simulation 2E

Chapter 19

Predictions

The previous chapters have shown how to build a working model of the
reservoir and establish a level of confidence in the validity of model results. It
is time to recall that modeling was undertaken to prepare a tool that would help
us develop recommendations for a reservoir management program. The primary
reservoir management objective is to determine the optimum operating
conditions needed to maximize the economic recovery of hydrocarbons. This
is accomplished, in principle, by marshaling accessible resources to
4 optimize recovery from a reservoir, and
+ minimize capital investments and operating expenses.
The commercial impact of the simulation study is the preparation of a cash flow
prediction from projected field performance. Thus, the model study is often
completed by making field performance predictions for use in economic analysis
of possible operating strategies.

19.1 Prediction Capabilities
Performance predictions are valuable for a variety of purposes. Predictions
can be used to better interpret and understand reservoir behavior and they
provide a means of determining model sensitivity to changes in input data. This
sensitivity analysis can guide the acquisition of additional data for improving
reservoir management.
Predictions enable people to estimate project life by predicting recovery
vs time. Project life depends not only on the flow behavior of the reservoir, but

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