Page 31 - Probability Demystified

20 CHAPTER 1 Basic Concepts

5
b.
6
1
c.
3
1
d.
6
(The answers to the quizzes are found on pages 242–245.)

Probability Sidelight

BRIEF HISTORY OF PROBABILITY

The concepts of probability are as old as humans. Paintings in tombs
excavated in Egypt showed that people played games based on chance as
early as 1800 B.C.E. One game was called ‘‘Hounds and Jackals’’ and is
similar to the present-day game of ‘‘Snakes and Ladders.’’
Ancient Greeks and Romans made crude dice from various items such
as animal bones, stones, and ivory. When some of these items were tested
recently, they were found to be quite accurate. These crude dice were also
used in fortune telling and divination.
Emperor Claudius (10 BCE–54 CE) is said to have written a book entitled
How To Win at Dice. He liked playing dice so much that he had a special dice
board in his carriage.
No formal study of probability was done until the 16th century when
Girolamo Cardano (1501–1576) wrote a book on probability entitled The
Book on Chance and Games. Cardano was a philosopher, astrologer,
physician, mathematician, and gambler. In his book, he also included
techniques on how to cheat and how to catch others who are cheating. He is
believed to be the first mathematician to formulate a definition of classical
probability.
During the mid-1600s, a professional gambler named Chevalier de Mere
made a considerable amount of money on a gambling game. He would bet
unsuspecting patrons that in four rolls of a die, he could obtain at least one 6.
He was so successful at winning that word got around, and people refused to
play. He decided to invent a new game in order to keep winning. He
would bet patrons that if he rolled two dice 24 times, he would get at least
one double 6. However, to his dismay, he began to lose more often than he
would win and lost money.