Page 32 - Probability Demystified

CHAPTER 1 Basic Concepts 21

Unable to figure out why he was losing, he asked a renowned
mathematician, Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) to study the game. Pascal was a
child prodigy when it came to mathematics. At the age of 14, he participated
in weekly meetings of the mathematicians of the French Academy. At the age
of 16, he invented a mechanical adding machine.
Becauseofthediceproblem,Pascalbecameinterestedinstudyingprobability
and began a correspondence with a French government official and fellow
mathematician, Pierre de Fermat (1601–1665). Together the two were able to
solve de Mere’s dilemma and formulate the beginnings of probability theory.
In 1657, a Dutch mathematician named Christian Huygens wrote a treatise
on the Pascal–Fermat correspondence and introduced the idea of mathemat-
ical expectation. (See Chapter 5.)
Abraham de Moivre (1667–1754) wrote a book on probability entitled
Doctrine of Chances in 1718. He published a second edition in 1738.
Pierre Simon Laplace (1749–1827) wrote a book and a series of
supplements on probability from 1812 to 1825. His purpose was to acquaint
readers with the theory of probability and its applications, using everyday
language. He also stated that the probability that the sun will rise tomorrow
1,826,214
is .
1,826,215
Simeon-Denis Poisson (1781–1840) developed the concept of the Poisson
distribution. (See Chapter 8.)
Also during the 1800s a mathematician named Carl Friedrich Gauss
(1777–1855) developed the concepts of the normal distribution. Earlier work
on the normal distribution was also done by de Moivre and Laplace,
unknown to Gauss. (See Chapter 9.)
In 1895, the Fey Manufacturing Company of San Francisco invented the
first automatic slot machine. These machines consisted of three wheels that
were spun when a handle on the side of the machine was pulled. Each wheel
contained 20 symbols; however, the number of each type of symbols was not
the same on each wheel. For example, the first wheel may have 6 oranges,
while the second wheel has 3 oranges, and the third wheel has only one.
When a person gets two oranges, the person may think that he has almost
won by getting 2 out of 3 equitable symbols, while the real probability of
winning is much smaller.
In the late 1940s, two mathematicians, Jon von Neumann and Stanislaw
Ulam used a computer to simulate probability experiments. This method is
called the Monte Carlo method. (See Chapter 10.)
Today probability theory is used in insurance, gambling, war gaming, the
stock market, weather forecasting, and many other areas.