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The 2007 Alcohol Monopoly Campaign 185

Campaign Communication Strategies
Messages
The 2007 campaign message was based on the Holder report (2007) published
by the National Institute of Public Health. The report examines two scenarios
focusing on health and social consequences if the Swedish alcohol retail monop-
oly is abolished. In the first scenario, the alcohol monopoly was replaced with
privately licensed alcohol stores, which specialize in alcohol sales. As a conse-
quence, (1) there would be an increase in the number of stores from the current
400 Systembolaget stores to more than 1,000 private outlets; (2) total alcohol as-
sortment in Sweden would be greater, but the assortment in each store smaller;
(3) there would be no price change if current Swedish alcohol excise taxes were
maintained; (4) the promotion effect is expected to increase consumption by
5% in addition to other price promotions; (5) opening hours would be longer;
and (6) it seems very likely that privatization would increase availability for un-
deraged buyers.
In the second scenario, all alcohol would be available in grocery stores. The
consequences could be that (1) all alcohol beverages would be sold in up to
8,000 grocery stores; (2) total alcohol assortment in an average grocery store
would be much smaller than in a Systembolaget store; (3) opening hours would
mirror grocery store hours; (4) grocery stores would offer low-priced alcoholic
beverages, with lower quality than the cheapest wines and spirits currently at
Systembolaget; (5) there would be no price change if current Swedish alcohol
excise taxes were maintained; (6) grocery stores would subsidize the price of se-
lected alcoholic beverages with profit on other products in order to generate
store traffic; (7) point-of-sale promotions and advertising are expected to in-
crease total consumption by 8%; and (8) it seems very likely that privatization
would increase availability for underaged buyers.
Current estimates of alcohol consumption are 9.5 liters per capita (100%
alcohol content; SoRAD, 2009). The Holder report shows that privatization of
all retail sales of alcohol in Sweden would raise consumption by 14% (approxi-
mately 1.4 liters per capita) if sales were restricted to specialty stores or by 29%
(approximately 2.8 liters per capita) if alcohol were available in grocery stores.
Holder (2007) claims that these estimates are conservative; the actual increase
would likely be higher. A forecasting model was used in the Holder report to es-
timate the health and social effects on alcohol consumption if Systembolaget
were replaced by specialty stores only or grocery stores. Alcohol sales in pri-
vately licensed specialty shops would annually result in an estimated 700 deaths