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CHAPTER 6 RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT 151

a characterization of the potential consequences of errors (rows labeled 1) or a failure
to achieve a desired outcome (rows labeled 2) are described. The impact category is
chosen based on the characterization that best fits the description in the table.

6.4 RISK PROJECTION

Risk projection, also called risk estimation, attempts to rate each risk in two ways—the
likelihood or probability that the risk is real and the consequences of the problems asso-
ciated with the risk, should it occur. The project planner, along with other managers
and technical staff, performs four risk projection activities: (1) establish a scale that
reflects the perceived likelihood of a risk, (2) delineate the consequences of the risk, (3)
estimate the impact of the risk on the project and the product, and (4) note the overall
accuracy of the risk projection so that there will be no misunderstandings.

6.4.1 Developing a Risk Table
A risk table provides a project manager with a simple technique for risk projection. 2
A sample risk table is illustrated in Figure 6.2.

Risks Category Probability Impact RMMM

Size estimate may be significantly low PS 60% 2
Larger number of users than planned PS 30% 3
Less reuse than planned PS 70% 2
End-users resist system BU 40% 3
Delivery deadline will be tightened BU 50% 2
Funding will be lost CU 40% 1
Customer will change requirements PS 80% 2
Technology will not meet expectations TE 30% 1
Lack of training on tools DE 80% 3
Staff inexperienced ST 30% 2
Staff turnover will be high ST 60% 2
•
•
•

Impact values:
1—catastrophic
2—critical
3—marginal
4—negligible
FIGURE 6.2 Sample risk table prior to sorting

2 The risk table should be implemented as a spreadsheet model. This enables easy manipulation
and sorting of the entries.