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CHAPTER 6 RISK ANALYSIS AND MANAGEMENT 157

agement intuition, the likelihood, l , of high turnover is estimated to be 0.70 (70 per-
1
cent, rather high) and the impact, x , is projected at level 2. That is, high turnover will
1
have a critical impact on project cost and schedule.
To mitigate this risk, project management must develop a strategy for reducing
turnover. Among the possible steps to be taken are
WebRef
• Meet with current staff to determine causes for turnover (e.g., poor working
An excellent FAQ on risk
management can be conditions, low pay, competitive job market).
obtained at
www.sei.cmu.edu/ • Mitigate those causes that are under our control before the project
organization/ starts.
programs/sepm/
risk/risk.faq.html • Once the project commences, assume turnover will occur and develop tech-
niques to ensure continuity when people leave.
• Organize project teams so that information about each development activity
is widely dispersed.
• Define documentation standards and establish mechanisms to be sure that
documents are developed in a timely manner.
• Conduct peer reviews of all work (so that more than one person is "up to speed”).
• Assign a backup staff member for every critical technologist.
As the project proceeds, risk monitoring activities commence. The project manager
monitors factors that may provide an indication of whether the risk is becoming
more or less likely. In the case of high staff turnover, the following factors can be
monitored:

• General attitude of team members based on project pressures.
• The degree to which the team has jelled.
“We are ready for an
unforseen event that • Interpersonal relationships among team members.
may or may not
occur.” • Potential problems with compensation and benefits.
Dan Quayle • The availability of jobs within the company and outside it.
In addition to monitoring these factors, the project manager should monitor the effec-
tiveness of risk mitigation steps. For example, a risk mitigation step noted here called
for the definition of documentation standards and mechanisms to be sure that doc-
uments are developed in a timely manner. This is one mechanism for ensuring con-
tinuity, should a critical individual leave the project. The project manager should
monitor documents carefully to ensure that each can stand on its own and that each
imparts information that would be necessary if a newcomer were forced to join the
software team somewhere in the middle of the project.
Risk management and contingency planning assumes that mitigation efforts have
failed and that the risk has become a reality. Continuing the example, the project is