Page 161 - The Making of the German Post-war Economy

134 THE MAKING OF THE GERMAN POST-WAR ECONOMY

On the basis of – justifiable – uncertainty in regard to public reception
of the consequences of the currency reform which made clear the
dichotomy between market economy and planned economy, Erhard
commissioned the IfD to assess public opinion in two surveys in June and
July 1948. These showed that 71 per cent and 74 per cent respectively
welcomed the currency reform. Furthermore, 44 per cent of the
interviewees considered the future of Germany after the reform more
optimistic, while 22 per cent were undecided and 24 per cent remained
sceptical and pessimistic. However, these opinion polls also revealed that
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the majority (79 per cent) considered the currency reform unfair and
inconsiderate because it was seen to privilege certain sectors of society; for
example, 62 per cent felt that mainly businesses benefited. These results
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were widely confirmed by an OMGUS survey in July 1948 in which the
currency reform received hearty approval in the American zone of
occupation. Nine in ten termed the reform drastic but necessary to jolt the
economy back to life, and over half (53 per cent) thought it should have
taken place earlier. It tended to create an optimistic mood: 54 per cent
expected the new currency to retain its value, 58 per cent believed that
they would get along better during the coming year because of the reform.
Even so, dissatisfaction increasingly pervaded society, particularly small
savers who felt disadvantaged compared to proprietors. Although
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worries over the availability of basic necessities tended to decrease after
the currency reform to nearly manageable proportions, anxiety over the
means of obtaining them skyrocketed. By midsummer, for instance, half
of the population in the American zone (48 per cent) said that they had no
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means of livelihood, and by August this figure had risen to 59 per cent.
Furthermore, while in June 78 per cent of the people in West Germany
did not fear unemployment against 14 per cent who did, by August of
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that year, 77 per cent expected – correctly, as it turned out – that the
currency reform would lead to greater unemployment. In fact, the
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unemployment rate increased from 3.2 per cent in June to 12.2 per cent in
December 1948. Whereas many enjoyed the benefits of the currency
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reform, more and more Germans did not and became mere onlookers of
economic life. Many felt betrayed by the Economic Council and their
representatives. This bitterness was, for instance, documented in a
monthly report of the district president of Upper and Middle Franconia
sent to the Bavarian government on 9 July 1948. After living expenses
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further increased by up to 200 per cent and simultaneously a general pay
freeze had been imposed, confrontations between employees and
employers grew and lawsuits in labour courts proliferated. For instance in
Bavaria, the number of pending lawsuits increased from 4,000 to 7,500
between December 1948 and December 1949. Public discord also
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