Page 37 - The McKinsey Mind

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Framing the Problem 15

on time, making sure the groom shows up)? Write them
out in the form of a logic tree. Can you come up with a dif-
ferent grouping—say, by responsibility—that is still
MECE?

HYPOTHESIS

Having reduced the problem to its essential components through
the use of appropriate frameworks, you are ready to embark on the
next step in the process of framing it: forming a hypothesis as to its
likely solution. McKinsey believes, and the experiences of McKin-
sey alumni demonstrate, that using an initial hypothesis to guide
your research and analysis will increase both the efficiency and
effectiveness of your decision making.

THE McKINSEY WAY
As we did with structure, let’s begin our exploration of using
hypotheses by recapping the relevant principles espoused by
McKinsey.
Solve the problem at the first meeting. McKinsey-ites learn that
it is much more efficient to analyze the facts of a problem with the
intent of proving or disproving a hypothesis than to analyze those
facts one by one to determine which answer they will eventually
provide. For a start, a hypothesis provides you and your team with
a problem-solving road map that will lead you to ask the right
questions and perform the correct analyses to get to your answer.
A good hypothesis will also save you time by pointing out poten-
tial blind alleys much more quickly and allowing you to get back
to the main issues if you do go down the wrong path.