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16 The McKinsey Mind

You generate your initial hypothesis by drawing conclusions
based on the limited facts that you know about the problem at
hand without doing a lot of additional research. For a consultant
new to the industry in question, this might mean spending a few
hours reading press articles and annual reports; someone with
plentiful industry experience might just jot down a few preliminary
thoughts. Ideally, you would then spend an hour or two meeting
with your teammates and hashing out some likely answers to the
problem.
Your next step is to figure out which analyses you have to per-
form and which questions you have to ask in order to prove or dis-
prove your hypothesis. One way to lay out these questions is with
an issue tree. The issue tree, a species of logic tree in which each
branch of the tree is an issue or question, bridges the gap between
structure and hypothesis.* Every issue generated by a framework
will likely be reducible to subissues, and these in turn may break
down further. An issue tree is simply the laying out of issues and
subissues into a MECE visual progression. By answering the ques-
tions in the issue tree, you can very quickly determine the validity
of your hypothesis.
Proper prior preparation. McKinsey teams rely on brainstorm-
ing to develop and test their initial hypotheses. Brainstorming
McKinsey-style, however, requires that all the team members come
to the meeting prepared, having absorbed all the facts currently
known to the team and having spent some time thinking about
their implications. Sometimes, especially for team leaders, it helps
if individuals have their own initial hypotheses already developed,
so that the team can bat them around, but it’s not essential. Just
don’t come into the meeting thinking you know the “answer.” Be
prepared to learn.

*We will detail the distinctions between the logic tree and the issue tree later in this chapter.