Page 62 - The McKinsey Mind

02 (031-048B) chapter 2 1/29/02 4:49 PM Page 40

40 The McKinsey Mind

have the perfect model. We just need to have something
that’s better than what we have today. Let’s go out and make
some money, and then we can continue to make it better
over time.

Once again, it is up to you to resist the impulse to get lost in the
data, whether in yourself or your team, because it will cost you
time and money.
Triangulate around the tough problems. In surveying and
mapmaking, triangulation is the method of determining the precise
location of an unknown point by taking measurements from two
known points. You can use an analogous technique to form a
hypothesis when you have very little information about the prob-
lem at hand—a very common occurrence in business. At some
point you will come up against a question that appears unanswer-
able. Either the data are proprietary to your fiercest competitor,
or you’re breaking entirely new ground in your industry, or for
whatever reason the question is just too tough to crack. If that’s the
case, don’t despair. Chances are you can come up with some analy-
ses that will at least allow you to scope out the likely limits of the
answer, even if they won’t get you particularly close. Once again, if
you’re directionally correct and in the right order of magnitude,
chances are that’s enough to make a decision.
To illustrate how this might be done, we’d like to present an
example from our alumnus at GlaxoSmithKline, Paul Kenny. He
had to determine the potential market size for a drug that had yet
to be developed and that treats a condition most doctors don’t even
recognize. His strategy gives an insight into how you might tackle
a similar situation:

We’re looking into a condition called hypoactive sexual
desire disorder (HSDD), which is an abnormally low level of
sexual desire, primarily in women. At this point, it’s not