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22 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

trend projection where we forecast the future trend in some variable; we look at
regression analysis which focuses on trying to quantitatively explain and predict
the movement in a variable; and we introduce a number of qualitative approaches
to forecasting.

Dynamic Programming

In this next online chapter, we look at dynamic programming which is an approach
that allows us to break up a large problem in such a fashion that once all the smaller
problems have been solved, we are left with an optimal solution to the large
problem. As with linear programming, the programming term indicates a logical
series of stages in our solution method.
Markov Process Models

Finally, in this last online chapter we look at Markov process models, which are
useful in studying the evolution of processes of systems over repeated trials. For
example, Markov processes have been used to describe the probability that a
machine, functioning in one period, will break down in another period.

Summary

l This text focuses on the quantitative techniques and models that are commonly used in management
science.
l The primary purpose of such techniques and models is providing information that will help people
make better decisions than they otherwise could have done.
l Management science is used successfully in many business organizations and makes a substantial
contribution to improved performance at both the operational and strategic levels.
l One of the distinguishing features of management science is its extensive use of models – both
qualitative and quantitative – to help decision-making. Knowledge of the quantitative management
science models that are available and their appropriate use is critical to a successful management
scientist. Equally important is a knowledge of the modelling process and where this fits into the wider
methodology adopted by management scientists.
l As we progress through the text, we shall be developing your knowledge and understanding of the
more common quantitative management science models; we shall help you understand where their
use is appropriate through examples, case studies and Management Science in Action examples; we
shall develop your skills in modelling and we will help you become a better management scientist!

WORKED EXAMPLE

t the end of each chapter we shall introduce a congestion on campus. Some initial survey work
A detailed business problem and show how suggests that during semesters around 5000 cars
the problem can be analyzed using MS techniques per weekday arrive on campus although most do not
introduced in that chapter. You should read the stay all day. Following some initial consultation, one
example and then develop your own solution to the option now under consideration relates to the con-
problem before going on to read our suggestions. struction of an additional short-term car park on
In this chapter we introduced the scenario that some spare land next to the campus. Initial analysis
the President of your College had approached you has concluded that the car park could be con-
seeking help with the problem of increased traffic structed for a one-off cost of E2 million. To pay for

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