Page 51 - An Introduction to Political Communication Fifth Edition

Intro to Politics Communication (5th edn)-p.qxp 9/2/11 10:55 Page 30

POLITICS IN THE AGE OF MEDIATION
experiments intended to isolate the effects of particular elements of the
communication process. Each of these data-gathering techniques has its
methodological limitations.

Surveys
Public opinion polling, for example, a technique which originated with
commercially motivated survey sampling in the 1930s, depends for its accuracy
on the application of sampling procedures which permit the survey to be
‘representative’. The questions asked of those polled must be carefully formu-
lated so as to avoid distortion, simplification and exaggeration of response. The
timing of polls must be taken into account and results interpreted cautiously,
with allowances made for a variety of potential sources of error. While the best-
known and most frequently used polling organisations, such as Gallup, MORI
and YouGov take considerable time and money to achieve the maximum degree
of accuracy possible, many opinion polls, particularly those conducted
independently by print and broadcast media, do not. As the 1992 British
general election showed, even the established pollsters may get it substantially
wrong when attempting to predict election outcomes. 3
Public opinion polls are not only a measure (however imperfect) of political
attitudes and intentions at a given point in time. Many observers agree that they
can become a causal factor in voting behaviour. American news broadcasters
have come under pressure in recent presidential elections to delay releasing the
findings of their exit polls (taken after citizens have voted) conducted on the east
coast of the country until polling booths on the west coast have closed (three
hours later), or at least until the majority of west coasters have voted. In the view
of some analysts, the results of these polls may affect those who have not yet
voted. If, for example, exit polls conducted in New York indicate a landslide for
one candidate, west coast supporters of the other candidate may decide not to
bother voting, thus distorting the final result. One explanation for the unex-
pected Conservative victory in the British general election of 1992 is that opinion
polls indicating a substantial Labour Party lead lulled both party members and
supporters into what turned out to be a false sense of security, enabling the
Conservatives to make decisive progress in the final few days of the campaign. 4
It has also been argued that opinion polls may generate a demonstration
effect, ‘cueing’ undecided voters on which party the majority is supporting, and
thus becoming self-fulfilling prophecies. Robert Worcester cites evidence that
about 3 per cent of British voters in general elections are influenced by opinion
polls, and that in by-elections the impact is even greater. He suggests that at the
Bermondsey by-election of 1983, when a controversial Labour Party candidate
was contesting a safe Labour seat, opinion polls indicating a slight lead for the
Liberal candidate generated an eventual Liberal landslide. In this case as in
others, the poll alerted voters as to who they should vote for if they did not want
the Labour candidate to win (Worcester, 1991, p. 205).

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