Page 54 - An Introduction to Political Communication Third Edition

THE EFFECTS OF POLITICAL COMMUNICATION

such as Gallup, MORI and NOP take considerable time and money
to achieve the maximum degree of accuracy possible, many opinion
polls, particularly those conducted independently by print and
broadcast media, do not. As the 1992 British general election
showed, even the established pollsters may get it substantially
wrong when attempting to predict election outcomes. 3
Public opinion polls are not only a measure (however imperfect)
of political attitudes and intentions at a given point in time. Many
observers agree that they can become a causal factor in voting
behaviour. American news broadcasters have come under pressure
in recent presidential elections to delay releasing the findings of
their exit polls (taken after citizens have voted) conducted on the
east coast of the country until polling booths on the west coast
have closed (three hours later), or at least until the majority of west
coasters have voted. In the view of some analysts, the results
of these polls may affect those who have not yet voted. If, for
example, exit polls conducted in New York indicate a landslide for
one candidate, west coast supporters of the other candidate may
decide not to bother voting, thus distorting the final result. One
explanation for the unexpected Conservative victory in the British
general election of 1992 is that opinion polls indicating a
substantial Labour Party lead lulled both party members and
supporters into what turned out to be a false sense of security,
enabling the Conservatives to make decisive progress in the final
few days of the campaign. 4
It has also been argued that opinion polls may generate a
demonstration effect, ‘cueing’ undecided voters on which party the
majority is supporting, and thus becoming self-fulfilling prophecies.
Robert Worcester cites evidence that about 3 per cent of British
voters in general elections are influenced by opinion polls, and that
in by-elections the impact is even greater. He suggests that at the
Bermondsey by-election of 1983, when a controversial Labour
Party candidate was contesting a safe Labour seat, opinion polls
indicating a slight lead for the Liberal candidate generated an
eventual Liberal landslide. In this case as in others, the poll alerted
voters as to who they should vote for if they did not want the
Labour candidate to win (Worcester, 1991, p. 205).
Arguments of this type are highly speculative and – given the
aforementioned difficulty of establishing cause and effect relation-
ships – practically impossible to prove. It is beyond doubt, however,
that public opinion polls become a part of the political environment
they are designed to monitor. Just as a thermometer alters the

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