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Principles of Risk Communication 53

Mayor Giuliani particularly understood the danger in delivering
unfounded or premature reassuring statements. Unfounded or premature
reassuring statements are often motivated by a desire to calm the pub-
lic and avoid panic and hysteria. Panic and hysteria describe an intense
contagious fear among individuals. However, research indicates that most
people respond cooperatively and adaptively in emergencies. Among the
risk factors that cause panic and hysteria are

• The belief that there is a small chance of escape.
• Seeing oneself as being at high risk of being seriously harmed or killed.
• Available but limited resources for assistance.
• Perceptions of a “first come, first served” system.
• A perceived lack of effective management of the disaster.
• Loss of credibility of authorities.
• The lack of meaningful things for people to do (e.g., tasks that increase
group interaction or increase connectedness).

One of the most important risk communication skills demonstrated
by Mayor Giuliani was his ability to communicate uncertainty. He recog-
nized the importance of the following principles related to communicat-
ing uncertainty:

• Acknowledge uncertainty in communications.
• Explain that data are often uncertain because it is hard to measure many
health, safety, and environmental effects.
• Explain how the risk estimate was obtained and by whom.
• Share risk information promptly, with appropriate reservations about
its certainty.
• Tell people what you believe (a) is certain, (b) is nearly certain, (c) is not
known, (d) may never be known, (e) is likely, (f) is unlikely, (g) is highly
improbable, and (h) will reduce the uncertainty.
• Tell people that what you believe now with certainty may turn out later
to be wrong.
• Announce problems promptly.

Strategies for Effective Risk Communication With the Mass Media

The mass media includes printed newspapers and journals, television, radio,
and, more recently, blogs and other Internet tools. The mass media are criti-
cal to effective risk communication. Among other functions, they typically