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Act Decisively  97

                       Awareness: You can recognize an   Action: Flip things around and try
                       illusion by its results. If you believe   to disconfirm the psychological
                       that you need to make perfect deci-  illusions that come across your
                       sions, you’ll lose opportunity after   awareness screen. For example, ask
                       opportunity. Lost opportunity is a   yourself, “Where is the uncontest-
                       result.                        able evidence that the decision I
                                                      am tempted to make is fact-based?
                                                      What are the facts that support
                                                      the decision?”



                      Overreliance on Heuristics

                      In an unfamiliar situation, you may rely on heuristics, or exam-
                      ples, to guide your decisions. These rules of thumb, common
                      sense, or selected tidbits or examples from experience take many
                      forms. “When in doubt, flip a coin” is a heuristic.
                          Heuristics can map a path to better planning and decision
                      making. You may profitably use a heuristic of mentally working
                      back from a future time when you’ve achieved a goal. By reflecting
                      on the steps you took, you may help yourself get past a planning
                      bottleneck.
                          When there are gaps in your knowledge and you have virtually
                      no time to study an issue, trusting your feelings may be the best
                      thing to do. If something doesn’t feel right, it may not be right.
                      You’re offered a deal that you have to decide on right away. It
                      sounds too good to be true. You rely on emotional cues and past
                      experience to assess the offer. You pass on the deal. However, some
                      heuristics have a downside in that they lead to poor decisions, and
                      some hide procrastination.


                      •   Heuristics sometimes work well enough. However, rules of
                          thumb can lead to distortions and bad decisions. You believe
                          that someone who looks you straight in the eye is honest,
                          but here is a paradox: pathological liars will normally look
                          straight at you, whereas a shy but unusually honest person
                          may avoid eye contact.
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