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Accuracy and its consequences     57




                  (when a CGM is used in adjunctive mode), or only for calibration (CGM in nonad-
                  junctive mode). The effects of accuracy will be different in each therapy mode and
                  use case, and this information must be clearly recorded and reported as part of the
                  study.

                  Time span
                  A system study must somehow assess the effects of accuracy as it pertains accrued
                  costs and more importantly the development of diabetes-related complications.
                     The rest of the chapter focuses on describing a systems approach that has been
                  applied to this problem and an example of its application to pump users. First, we
                  motivate our approach by discussing the result of direct observational studies and
                  their limitations. We then discuss modeling and simulation as an alternative
                  approach and how it addresses the stated requirements.



                  Accuracy and its consequences
                  The first studies relating accuracy and its clinical effects coined the term clinical
                  accuracy [23,25]. The rationale here is to directly transform measurement errors
                  into quantities that assign these errors a clinical significance. This is the approach
                  followed in Refs. [24,56] where (measurement, reference) pairs are classified into
                  zones in the plane. Each zone is associated with certain clinical significance. For
                  example, meter measurements that are extremely large with respect to the reference
                  value are labeled erroneous (D or E) as opposed to accurate or benign. The approach
                  lends itself well to a graphical display and is an excellent communication tool. There
                  are two potential shortcomings of the approach. On one hand, the boundaries of
                  these regions are discrete and the same for all the population. Considering the meta-
                  bolic variability of patients, it is unlikely that such boundaries are equally accurate
                  for all. On the other hand, the clinical consequences of inaccuracy represent a static
                  view of a dynamic system. It is conceivable that repeated errors, even mild ones, can
                  have long-term and cascading effects.
                     An alternate approach is to directly observe the clinical outcomes in a popula-
                  tion. For example, in Ref. [49], meter accuracy was assessed by comparing
                  SMBG meter measurements to a reference such as Yellow Springs Instrument
                  (YSI) results taken during patient visits. Measurement errors were classified into
                  accurate, benign, or erroneous according to the error grid analysis (EGA) [23].
                  The study reports significant correlations between erroneous reports and HbA1c
                  levels and the incidence of severe hypoglycemia. Other studies [57] show that the
                  improper use of meters requiring calibration to match a specific strip code may
                  also lead to insulin dosing errors that can have life-threatening consequences, for
                  example, can lead to an increased number of hypoglycemia levels under 50 mg/
                  dL. Among the limitations of the approach are the reduced number of meter brands
                  that can be observed, and accuracy variability across lots [27]. In addition, results are
                  aggregated making it difficult to understand the performance of individual meters.
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