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58  Chapter 3: Experimental Methods in Kinetics: Measurement of Rate of Reaction

                              Generally, the primary objective of parameter estimation is to generate estimates
                            of rate parameters that accurately predict the experimental data. Therefore, once es-
                            timates of the parameters are obtained, it is essential that these parameters be used to
                            predict (recalculate) the experimental data. Comparison of the predicted and experi-
                            mental data (whether in graphical or tabular form) allows the “goodness of fit” to be
                            assessed. Furthermore, it is a general premise that differences between predicted and
                            experimental concentrations be randomly distributed. If the differences do not appear
                            to be random, it suggests that the assumed rate law is incorrect, or that some other
                            feature of the system has been overlooked.
                              At this stage, we consider a reaction of the form of (A) in section 3.1.2:

                                                  lvAIA  + /vulB  + IV&  + products               (A)

                            and that the rate law is of the form of equations 3.1-2 and 3.1-8 combined:
                                                            .
                                             (-rA) =  kAcic[. . = Aexp(-E,lRT)czcg   . . .
                            (In subsequent chapters, we may have to consider forms other than this straightfor-
                            ward power-law form; the effects of  T  and composition may not be separable, and, for
                            complex systems, two or more rate laws are simultaneously involved. Nevertheless, the
                            same general approaches described here apply.)
                              Equation 3.4-17 includes three (or more) rate parameters in the first part: kA, a, j?,
                            . ..) and four (or more) in the second part: A,  EA,  (Y,  p,  . . . . The former applies to data
                            obtained at one T, and the latter to data obtained at more than one T. We assume that
                            none of these parameters is known  a priori.
                              In general, parameter estimation by statistical methods from experimental data in
                            which the number of measurements exceeds the number of parameters falls into one of
                            two categories, depending on whether the function to be fitted to the data is linear or
                            nonlinear with respect to the parameters. A function is linear with respect to the param-
                            eters, if for, say, a doubling of the values of all the parameters, the value of the function
                            doubles; otherwise, it is nonlinear. The  right side of equation 3.4-17 is nonlinear. We
                            can put it into linear form by taking logarithms of both sides, as in equation 3.4-4:

                                           ln(-rA)  = lnA-(E,/RT)+aclnc,+Plncu+...             (3.4-18)

                            The function is now ln(-rA),  and the parameters are In A, EA, a, p, . . . .
                              Statistical methods can be applied to obtain values of parameters in both linear and
                            nonlinear forms (i.e., by linear and nonlinear regression, respectively). Linearity with
                            respect to the parameters should be distinguished from, and need not necessarily be
                            associated with, linearity with respect to the variables:

                              (1) In equation 3.4-17, the right side is nonlinear with respect to both the parameters
                                  (A, EA, (Y, p, . . .) and the variables (T, CA,  cB,  . . .).
                              (2) In equation 3.4-18, the right side is linear with respect to both the parameters and
                                  the variables, if the variables are interpreted as l/T, ln CA, ln cn, . . . . However,
                                  the transformation of the function from a nonlinear to a linear form may result
                                  in a poorer fit. For example, in the Arrhenius equation, it is usually better to esti-
                                  mate A and EA by nonlinear regression applied to k = A exp( -E,/RT), equation
                                  3.1-8, than by linear regression applied to Ink = In A - E,IRT, equation 3.1-7.
                                  This is because the linearization is statistically valid only if the experimental data
                                  are subject to constant relative errors (i.e., measurements are subject to fixed
                                  percentage errors); if, as is more often the case, constant  absolute  errors are ob-
                                  served, linearization misrepresents the error distribution, and leads to incorrect
                                  parameter estimates.
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