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184                                                     7 Spatial Data

            (Fig. 7.15). At a closer look we can see that the linear model fi ts reason-


            ably well over the first three lags. This can be sufficient when we use the
            variogram model only for kriging, because in kriging the nearby points are
            the most important for the estimate (see discussion of kriging below). Thus,
            different variogram models with similar fi ts near the origin will yield simi-
            lar kriging results when sampling points are regularly distributed. If you
            are interested in describing the spatial structures it is another case. Then it

            is important to find a suitable model over all lags and to determine the sill
            and the range accurately. A collection of geologic case studies in Rendu
            and Readdy (1982) show how process knowledge and variography can be
            linked. Good guidelines to variogram modeling are given by Gringarten and
            Deutsch (2001) and Webster and Oliver (2001).

               We will now briefly discuss some more aspects of variography.
            1. Sample size – As in any statistical procedure you need as large a sample
               as possible to get a reliable estimate. For variography it is recommended
               to have more than 100 to 150 samples (Webster and Oliver, 2001). If you




                                     Linear model
                 0.8

                      Population
                 0.7
                      variance
                                     Exponential model
                 0.6
               Semivariance  0.5



                 0.4
                 0.3
                           Spherical model
                 0.2
                 0.1

                  0
                   0       20      40      60      80     100     120     140
                                    Distance between observations

            Fig. 7.15 Variogram estimator (gray circles), population variance (dashed line), spherical,
            exponential, and linear models (solid lines).
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