Page 43 - Pipeline Risk Management Manual Ideas, Techniques, and Resources

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to use this general approach, since that was the original purpose Step 3: Devise and implement a segmentation
of the basic framework. strategy
By using simple computer tools such as a spreadsheet or
desktop database to hold risk data, and then establishing some Because risks are rarely constant along a pipeline, it is advanta-
administrative processes around the maintenance and use ofthe geous to first segment the line into sections with constant risk
information, the quick-start applicator now has a system to sup- characteristics (dynamic segmentation) or otherwise divide the
port risk management. Experienced risk managers may balk at pipeline into manageable pieces.
such a simplification of an often complex and time-consuming
process. However, the point is that the process and underlying Step 4:Assess the risks
ideas are straightforward, and rapid establishment of a very
useful decision support system is certainly possible. It may not After a risk model has been selected and the data have been pre-
be of sufficient rigor for a very detailed assessment, but the user pared, risks along the pipeline route can be assessed. This is the
will nonetheless have a more formal structure from which to process of applying the algorithn-the rules-to the collected
better ensure decisions of consistency and completeness of data. Each pipeline segment will get a unique risk score that
information. reflects its current condition, environment, and the operating/
maintenance activities. These relative risk numbers can later be
For pipeline operators converted into absolute risk numbers. Risk assessment will need
to be repeated periodically to capture changing conditions.
Whereas the approach described above is a way to get started
quickly, this tool becomes even more powerful if the user Step 5: Manage the risks
customizes it, perhaps adding new dimensions to the process
to better suit his or her particular needs. As with any engi- This step consists of determining what actions are appropri-
neered system (the risk assessment system described herein ate given the risk assessment results. This is discussed in
employs many engineering principles), a degree of due Chapter 15.
diligence is also warranted. The experienced pipeline opera-
tor should challenge the example point schedules: Do they Model design and data collection are often the most costly
match your operating experience? Read the reasoning parts of the process. These steps can be time consuming not
behind the schedules: Do you agree with that reasoning? only in the hands-on aspects, but also in obtaining the neces-
Invite (or require) input from employees at all levels. Most sary consensus from all key players. The initial consensus often
pipeline operators have a wealth of practical expertise that can makes the difference between a widely accepted and a partially
be used to fine-tune this tool to their unique operating envi- resisted system. Time and resources spent in these steps can be
ronment. Although customizing can create some new issues, viewed as initial investments in a successfil risk management
problems can be avoided for the most part by carefully tool. Program management and maintenance are normally
planning and controlling the process of model setup and small relative to initial setup costs.
maintenance.
The point here again is to build a useful toolbone that is 111. Risk assessment models
regularly used to aid in everyday business and operating deci-
sion making, one that is accepted and used throughout the What is a model?
organization. Refer also to Chapter 1 for ideas on evaluating the
measuring capability of the tool. Armed with an understanding of the scenarios that compose the
hazard (see Chapter 1 discussion of risk model building
blocks), a risk assessment model can be constructed. The model
11. Beginning risk management is the set of rules by which we will predict the future perform-
ance of the pipeline from a risk perspective. The model will be
Chapter 1 suggests the following as basic steps in risk man- the constructor’s representation of risk.
agement: The goal of any risk assessment model is to quantify the
risks, in either a relative or absolute sense. The risk assessment
phase is the critical first step in practicing risk management. It
Step 1: Acquire a risk assessment model is also the most difficult phase. Although we understand engi-
neering concepts about corrosion and fluids flow, predicting
A pipeline risk assessment model is a set of algorithms or failures beyond the laboratory in a complex “real” environment
“rules” that use available information and data relationships to can prove impossible. No one can definitively state where or
measure levels of risk along a pipeline. A risk assessment when an accidental pipeline failure will occur. However, the
model can be selected from some commercially available more likely failure mechanisms, locations, and frequencies can
models, customized from existing models, or created “from be estimated in order to focus risk efforts.
scratch” depending on requirements. Some make a distinction between a model and a simulation,
where a model is a simplification of the real process and a
Step 2: Collect and prepare data simulation is a direct replica. A model seeks to increase our
understanding at the expense of realism, whereas a simulation
Data preparation are the processes that result in data sets that attempts to duplicate reality, perhaps at the expense of under-
are ready to be read into and used by the risk assessment model. standability and usability. Neither is necessarily superior-