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      number of situations the ship will experience to those defined by significant wave height, mean wave
      period and ship heading towards the waves. The cargo units have been assumed to be lashed containers,
      according to the cargo model described above, with F1= F2. All cargo units are assumed to have equal
      properties, and  the  applied pre-tensions are according to  the regulations of  the  Swedish Maritime
      Administration  (1994).  Sea  states  have  been  assumed to  last  for  four  hours.  The  probability of
      occurrence of the sea states is based on the wave statistics of Hogben et al. (1986), and the wave
      simulations are based on the Jonswap spectrum. The motion simulations have been made for four
      hours,  with  an  increment  of  0.05  rads  and  about  40  frequencies.  In  all  cases  the  same  wave
      realisations and sample of cargo units have been used in order to enable comparison.

      In Figure 2 and Figure 3 the risk level is shown for three different shipping zones, which stands for
      areas of  restricted operation with  different cargo  securing regulations, according to  the  Swedish
      Maritime Administration (1994). Zone A  is  sheltered waters, with the  lowest requirement on pre-
      tension, and zone C is unrestricted operation, which imposes the strongest rules of securing. The route
      used for the case studies comprises both zone A and B. Thus the parameter influence is discussed for
      cargo lashed according to the regulations of zone B. As can be seen, for a ship operating in zone B
      with  cargo secured for  zone A the  risk  is significantly larger than when the  cargo  is secured for
      unrestricted operation (zone C). This points at the importance of securing the cargo according to the
      area in which the ship will operate. It is interesting to note that for the variation of GMo, the parameter
      influence changes when the degree of pre-tension in the lashings is varied.

      Figure 2 shows how the GMo of the vessel influences the risk of cargo shifting. GMo, which influences
      the stability and natural roll period of a vessel, strongly influences the risk of cargo shifting and an
      unfortunate choice of GMo can have a large negative effect on the risk of cargo shifting. As can be
      seen the largest GMo results in the largest risk, which can be expected since a large GMo means a very
      stable and thereby stiff ship with large roll acceleration. However, a very low GMo (poor stability) will
      also result in a relatively high risk, since the roll amplitude is relatively high. The natural roll period is
      proportional to the inverse of GMo, which means a vessel with a high GMo will have a low natural roll
      period. For the studied case the vessel with a GMo of 2.48 m has a natural roll period of 10 s.  Since
      wave periods are generally in the range of 5 to 10 seconds, this means the stable ship will more often
      be subjected to waves exciting large roll motions.
                                       1
                  - 0 75                                  __ Lashed for:
                  a,
                  t
                  3 050
                  a
                  u)
                    0.25
                    0.00
                             0 15        0 68        2.48
                                       GMo [ml
          Figure 2: Risk of cargo shifting as a function of GMo (route in zone B, at a speed of 15 knots)
      In Figure 3 the influence of speed is shown. The influence of speed mainly shows the importance of
      operational aspects. If the speed is reduced when severe ship motions are experienced the risk level
      can be reduced considerably. For example the risk at 10 knots is only one third of the risk at 15 knots.
      Naturally, constant speed in all sea states is unrealistic, especially at 20 knots.
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