Page 176 - Psychological Management of Individual Performance

delineation of performance potential analysis 159
has consequences for the scope of abilities and skills that can be included, but also for
the methods. Two different approaches are reasonable for potential analysis according
to the first position. One is the measurement of talents or predispositions of a person.
This diagnosis can be performed by tests that are content-related to the skill or ability
for which the potential should be estimated. For example, the potential of a person who
does not speak French to speak French in future, could be measured by a test of grammar
understanding and a test that measures the capability to reproduce information from
memory, etc. Alternatively, the potential could be estimated (by means of correlations)
from a set of predictors that do not necessarily have any content-relation to the skill or
ability in question, e.g., the time someone spent outside the mother country, the number
of siblings, etc.
The second theoretical position includes the first one and broadens it to existing skills
and abilities. That means, potential analysis according to this viewpoint includes the
possibilities of the aforementioned position in the case of non-existing skills and abilities.
In the case of potential analysis of existing skills and abilities, of course, the identical
measures can be used as for non-existing. Additionally, potential can be measured by
means of interpersonal comparisons or comparisons against a norm. For example, the
potential of a person to speak French in future who presently is on a certain level (fluency,
vocabulary) after having studied French in school for five years can be determined in
comparison to other persons who have studied French in school for five years as well.
If the history of skill or ability development is not known exactly and there are no
comparison groups or norms available (which is the rule rather than the exception), it
is possible to estimate the potential by a time-spaced sequence of tests that allow the
direct observation of the skill or ability in question (e.g., role plays). It is obvious that
this approach to potential analysis offers more possibilities of measurement and refers
to a wider scope of skills and abilities that might be captured.
Another nicety that should be mentioned is the group of individuals which participate
in such a potential analysis. Some authors see potential analysis as restricted to current
employees of the organization (Becker, 1992; Lattmann, 1994) while others refer to
the prediction of future performance in general and thereby imply personnel selection
procedures (Birkhan, 1996; Schuler, 1996; Schuler & Prochaska, 1992). Becker deals
with this detail of the definition explicitly. He points out that potential analysis refers to
current employees and should be distinguished from personnel selection measures
as the data basis is different. The prediction of future performance for employees is
based on first-hand knowledge of the individual’s daily work performance and is there-
fore more sound than in personnel selection. However, it might be useful to avoid such
strict distinctions as the following example illustrates: The performance of a job app-
licant having worked for a business partner of the organization in question is well known,
whereas the performance of an employee who only recently has joined the organization
may better be predicted from application documents or tests. Although it does not seem
helpful to restrict the definition, still, when talking of potential analysis the majority
of authors implicitly refer to current members of the organization rather than to job
applicants.
On the basis of the aforementioned arguments we think that none of the existing
definitions is sufficiently comprehensive. Therefore we have compiled a definition which
wethinkprovidesabasisforaconsciousandconsiderateapplicationofpotentialanalysis.
We understand potential analysis to be an estimation of the degree to which performance-
related skills and abilities that already exist, or do not yet exist, will develop or could be