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CHAPTER 34

Critical Thinking and Risk Management

Abstract
Critical thinking is an intellectually disciplined process of receiving information and analyzing it
accurately and objectively, free from bias.
Keywords: Critical thinking; risk management; thinking errors; cognitive traps

Critical thinking is an intellectually disciplined process of receiving information and
analyzing it accurately and objectively, free from bias. It is easier said than done.
We all think. But without the discipline of critical thinking, much of our thinking
is biased, distorted, and inaccurate. Yet in our daily lives we make decisions, some-
times with dire consequences, based on mindless thinking. This book is not about
critical thinking—that is a much larger subject. But in this chapter a few examples of
critical thinking issues are provided just to make the reader aware of the potential
impact of thinking errors on risk management.
Below some contributors to thinking errors are highlighted.
Incredulity—We often miss things if they don’t fit our mental models and beliefs.
Can you imagine a color that you have never seen before? It is not possible, because
you need to first have a mental model of the color, before you can imagine it. If a
phenomenon that you believe cannot happen happens, you would do everything pos-
sible to persuade yourself that it didn’t happen. From doubting the data, to doubting
your perception and analysis.
Super-focus—Consider a tester whose job it is to test a specific requirement. While
observing the system for that one requirement, other events or things may manifest. If
the tester is super-focused on the task, he/she could easily miss even major extraneous
observations. An interesting experiment called the monkey business illustrates this. You
can see a video by Daniel J. Simons on YouTube at this web address: https://youtu.be/
IGQmdoK_ZfY . There is also a related book with the title The Invisible Gorilla [37].
Confirmation bias—If we believe something to be true or perhaps want it to be
true, we tend to seek/welcome information that confirms our belief, and dismiss the
information that refutes our belief. This is a major factor in human existence. For
example, you have heard the saying “love is blind,” which describes a person who is
in love and can see no faults or flaws in the beloved. This is a manifestation of

Safety Risk Management for Medical Devices r 2018 Elsevier Ltd.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-813098-8.00034-9 All rights reserved. 233