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Building Empirically Plausible MAS 111

involve decision weights for example and it must be possible to measure these.
If, in fact, real agents do not make decisions using a BDI approach, they will
have no conception of weights and these will not be measurable or, worse,
unstable artefacts of the measuring technique. Until they have been measured,
these entities might be described as “theoretical” or “theory constructs”. They
form a coherent part of a theory, but do not necessarily have any meaning in
the real world.
Thus, despite some limitations and given the state of “normal science” in
social simulation, this chapter can be seen as a thought experiment. Could we
build MAS genuinely “based on” data? Do such MAS provide better under-
standing of social systems and, if so, why?

3. The Case Study: Innovation Diffusion

Probably the best way of illustrating these points is to choose a social process
that has not yet undergone MAS simulation. Rogers [18] provides an excellent
review of the scope and diversity of innovation diffusion research: the study
of processes by which practices spread through populations. Despite many
excellent qualitative case studies, “normal science” in the field still consists of
statistical curve fitting on retrospective aggregate data about the adoption of the
innovation.
Now, by contrast, consider innovation diffusion from a MAS perspective.
Consider the diffusion of electronic personal organisers (EPO). For each agent,
we are interested in all message passing, actions and cognitive processing which
bears on EPO purchase and use. These include seeing an EPO in use or using
one publicly, hearing or speaking about its attributes (or evaluations of it),
thinking privately about its relevance to existing practices (or pros and cons
relative to other solutions), having it demonstrated (or demonstrating it). In
addition, individuals may discover or recount unsatisfied “needs” which are
(currently or subsequently) seen to match EPO attributes, they may actually
buy an EPO or seek more information.
A similar approach can be used when more “active” organisational roles are
incorporated. Producers modify EPO attributes in the light of market research
and technical innovations. Advertisers present them in ways congruent with
prevailing beliefs and fears: “inventing” uses, allaying fears and presenting
information. Retailers make EPO widely visible, allowing people to try them
and ask questions.
This approach differs from the traditional one in two ways. Firstly, it is
explicit about relevant social processes. Statistical approaches recognise that
the number of new adopters is a function of the number of existing adopters but
“smooth over” the relations between different factors influencing adoption. It is
true that if all adopters are satisfied, this will lead to further adoptions through