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28 The McKinsey Mind

them?” If the answers to these questions lower down the tree turn
out to be no, then your hypothesis is indeed in jeopardy.
At this point, the process of laying out an issue tree should be
clear to you. If you’ve done it, then you have sketched out the tasks
that you will need to fulfill in terms of research and analysis—sub-
jects that we will address in the following chapters.
The McKinsey technique of hypothesis-driven problem solv-
ing—solving the problem at the first meeting—has proved to be
an excellent decision-making skill beyond the confines of the Firm.
If you spend some up-front time combining your initial fact base
with your gut instinct, you will enable yourself to come to a more
robust solution sooner. A little bit of time spent weeding out
invalid hypotheses at the outset and then determining the scope of
your analysis with an issue tree will save you time and improve
your results.

EXERCISES
• Think about a nonbusiness issue about which you hold a
strong view (e.g., gun control, evolution, global warming).
List the assumptions that you are making with regard to
your position. Are they all true? What information or
analyses would you need to support your view?
• If you haven’t already, come up with a couple of likely
hypotheses for whatever issue you are currently working
on in your job. Can you come up with one or two things
that must be true for each hypothesis to be valid? Now
subject each hypothesis to the QDT.