Page 104 - Advances in Renewable Energies and Power Technologies

CHAPTER

Forecasting of Intermittent

Solar Energy Resource 3

Gilles Notton, Cyril Voyant
Renewable energy team - Research Centre Georges Peri - UMR CNRS 6134,
University of Corsica Pasquale Paoli, Ajaccio, France

CHAPTER OUTLINE
1. Introduction ......................................................................................................... 78
2. Intermittent and Stochastic Renewable Energy Production in an Electrical Grid ....... 79
2.1 The Production/Consumption Balance: A Difficult Task Even With
Conventional Energy Production Means................................................... 79
2.2 Intermittence of Renewable Production and Impact on the Electrical Grid
Management......................................................................................... 81
3. Need for Solar and Wind Forecast: Forecast Horizon and Time Step........................ 83
4. Cost of Intermittence and Benefit of Forecasting..................................................... 85
4.1 Cost of Intermittency............................................................................. 85
4.2 Forecasting and Influences on Production Cost ........................................ 86
5. Forecast Accuracy Evaluation ............................................................................... 87
6. Forecasting Methods for Different Forecast Horizons .............................................. 92
6.1 Temporal Horizon and Resolution e Generalities About Solar Irradiance
Forecasting........................................................................................... 93
6.2 Very Short-Term Forecasting in a Temporal Range From 0 to 6 h............... 96
6.2.1 Sky Imagery ....................................................................................... 96
6.2.2 Satellite Cloud Image.......................................................................... 96
6.2.3 Stochastic Learning Methods or Time SerieseBased Method............... 99
6.3 Solar Forecasting for Ranges Between 6 h and Days Ahead..................... 104
6.4 Reliability and Accuracy of the Forecasting Models ................................ 104
7. The Future of the Renewable Energy Forecasting.................................................. 106
7.1 Now-Casting ....................................................................................... 106
7.2 Six Hours Ahead Prediction and More ................................................... 107
7.2.1 Model Output Statistics..................................................................... 107
7.2.2 Nonhydrostatic Atmospheric Models ................................................. 108
7.2.3 High Accuracy Irradiance Measurement............................................ 108
8. Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 108
References ............................................................................................................. 109

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Advances in Renewable Energies and Power Technologies. https://doi.org/10.1016/B978-0-12-812959-3.00003-4
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