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Analysis Methods for Design Decisions      183



























               FIGURE 9.4  Life-cycle comparison of automotive fuels.


               However, as seen in Chapter 8, environmental performance is often
               closely connected with other factors. Sometimes there are synergies,
               e.g., decreasing waste may result in lower costs; and sometimes there
               are compromises, e.g., increasing durability may interfere with recy-
               clability. As mentioned above, scoring matrices provide a qualitative
               means of analyzing these trade-offs.
                   To fully understand complex trade-offs may require the develop-
               ment of predictive simulation models that capture the interactions
               among different design parameters. Detailed simulations can be
               extremely labor intensive, e.g., Gaussian plume dispersion models
               for airborne releases from production facilities. Only under excep-
               tional circumstances would such tools be used for product and pro-
               cess development purposes. Nevertheless, with increased computing
               power, it is now possible to embed simulations into computer-aided
               design toolkits so that engineers can test new designs for compli-
               ance with important environmental constraints. One example of
               such a tool, still under development, is the Multiscale Integrated
               Models of Ecosystem Services (MIMES) system developed by Rob-
               ert Costanza and his colleagues at the University of Vermont. This is
               a suite of dynamic ecological-economic computer models specifi-
               cally aimed at understanding the impact of industrial activities on
               ecosystem services and human well-being.

                 Example: The Millennium Institute, a nonprofit based in Washington, D.C., has
                 developed a sophisticated policy simulation tool called Threshold 21 (T21). The
                 tool combines inputs from more detailed models to examine the interactions
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