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64     CHAPTER 4 Consequences of SMBG systems inaccuracy




                         The in silico study
                         As described in Fig. 4.8, we built a simulation model for each of the 43 commercial
                         BGM systems reported in Ref. [13] (a later study included an additional nine BGM
                         systems reported in Ref. [10]). In parallel, we used archived deidentified data
                         collected during the project funded by the National Institutes of Health/National
                         Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases grant RO1 DK 085623
                         (see clinicaltrial.gov for clinical trial registration number NCT01434030) to charac-
                         terize patients’ behaviors. Device and behavioral models were integrated into a
                         30-day simulation based on the UVA/Padova Simulator [69]. The following sections
                         describe with a bit more detail these calculations.
                         Meter models
                         As mentioned earlier, this study included separate models for 43 BGM systems
                         commercially available in 2012 [13] and 9 that were available later in 2015
                         [10,13]. The BGM systems models used relied on separate statistical descriptions
                         of the noise on upper (>100 mg/dL) and lower (<100 mg/dL) glucose ranges,
                         an approach also used in Ref. [81].




                                                   Clinical Outcomes
                             Total Daily     Fingersticks                       Severe
                               Insulin                          HbA1c        Hypoglycemia


                                                             Modeling & Analysis


                                                   30 Day Simulation


                                                                       UVA/Padova Simulator

                                 SMBG Models
                                                                     Behavioral Models
                                 (43 + 9 models)
                                          Modeling                              Modeling


                               Literature on SMBG                    Observed Behavior
                              (Freckmann 2012; et al)                 (NIH Phase I Study)

                         FIGURE 4.8
                         Design of the in silico study for this illustration.
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