Page 202 - Hydrocarbon Exploration and Production Second Edition

Volumetric Estimation 189

Variable A Variable B

Low Medium High Low Medium High

A L M H
B 2 3 4

L 2 4 6 8

M 4 8 12 16

H 6 12 18 24

A * B L M H
6.0 10.7 19. 3
Figure 7.13 Combining three-point estimates.

can always be used as a last resort, but beware that the range of uncertainty narrows
each time the process is repeated because the tails of the input variables are always
neglected. This can lead to a false impression of the range of uncertainty in the final
result.
Further detail on managing uncertainty is discussed in Chapter 15.