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Chapter 30 Risk Assessment Applied to Offshore Structures             549

                  spread  moored  FPSO.  The  main  hazards  associated  with  tandem  assisted  offloading are
                  collision between shuttle tankers and FPSO and oil spillage from hose rupture.  Loading hose
                  rupture can occur during connection of transfer hose and oflloading phases, due to structural
                  defects, fatigue loading, excessive tensiodpressure or extreme fishtailing. Fatigue cracks may
                  develop in offloading risers in harsh environment. Failure of single point mooring system may
                  lead to failure of the transfer risers if the transfer risers are structurally supported by the single
                  point mooring system.
                  Examples of the approaches to reduce risks are,
                     improving the ability to detect the failure and to activate the shutdown system,
                    monitoring traffic and mooring hawser and deck watches,
                     improving personnel training and preparedness to face accidental situation (Karsan, et al
                     1999),
                     isolating oil offloading risers (hoses) from the buoy of the single point mooring system
                     from structural redundancy point of view,
                    use of standby vessels that can perform a variety of operations from providing emergency
                    towing to  assisting with the mooring and hose lifting operations (Daughdrill and  Clark,
                    2002),
                    designing offloading system with adequate redundancy.
                  Daughdrill and Clark (2002) outlined several published guides on offloading:
                    “Offshore loading safety guideline with special relevance to harsh weather zones” by Oil
                    Companies International Marine Forum (OClMF) in 1999,
                    “Ship to ship transfer guide (petroleum), 3rd Edition” by OCIMF in 1997,
                    “The training and experience of key DP personnel”, by International Marine Contractors
                    Association (IMCA) in 1996,
                    “Risk  minimization  guidelines  for  shuttle  tanker  operations  worldwide  at  offshore
                    locations” by INTERTANKO (International Association of Independent Tanker Owner) in
                    2000.
                 To predict  the relative motion  (surging and  yawing) and probability of  collisions between
                 FPSO  and  shuttle tankers in  tandem  offloading operation, Chen  et  al  (2002) presented  a
                 simulation-based approach based on a time-domain simulation code SIMO. The collisions are
                 modeled in two stages: the initiating stage and the recovery stage. The initiating stage is the
                 situations where something could possibly go  wrong to  cause tanker uncontrolled forward
                 movement, while the  recovery stage is the initiation by tanker to  avoid  collision after the
                 occurrence of the initiating stage. In the probabilistic model for the initiating stage, Chen at al
                 (2002) integrated technical events, human actions and their interactions. The SIMO simulation
                 models are calibrated for a typical North Sea FPSO and a DP  shuttle tanker. The extreme
                 values for the simulated relative distance and heading between FPSO and tanker are analyzed
                 by fitting with statistical models. Chen et a1 (2002) estimated that the frequencies of excessive
                 surging and  yawing  can  both  be  in  the  order of  10E-3 per  year.  Sensitivities to  various
                 technical  and  operating  factors  are  studied,  and  measures  are  identified to  minimize  the
                 probability of collision.
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