Page 184 - Modern Spatiotemporal Geostatistics

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MODIFICATIONS OF FORMAL BME
ANALYSIS

"Common sense has the very curious property of being more correct
retrospectively than prospectively. It provides a kind of ultimate vali-
dation after science has completed its work; common sense seldom an-
ticipates what science is going to discover." R.L. Ackoff

Versatility and Practicality
In the preceding chapters, strong emphasis has been laid on the view that the
construction of a spatiotemporal map representing a natural phenomenon—
which is characterized by considerable variability and uncertainty—requires
both: (a) broad-based physical knowledge; and (b) scientific reasoning strate-
gies to operate over such knowledge. This double requirement is fully ap-
preciated by the BME theory, which combines a variety of physical knowl-
edge sources with a sound scientific reasoning framework that revolves around
meaningful epistemic ideals and goals, multiple estimation options, and cogent
predictions.
An important feature of the theoretical BME formulation is its versatility.
Indeed, several modifications of the formal BME approach can be made in a
rather straightforward manner. Some of these modifications are examined in
this chapter. In particular, in the following section, we are concerned with the
study of functionals such as block average concentration, temporally averaged
exposure, and population damage indicator. Multivariable or vector mapping
(i.e., estimation of several natural variables jointly) is the topic of the third
section. Then, the fourth section introduces the main framework of multipoint
BME analysis (i.e., estimation at several space/time points simultaneously).
This topic is of considerable practical importance, which is the reason that it is
revisited in Chapter 11. Finally, in the last section, we discuss the important role
that BME can play in the context of systems analysis. In many applications

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