Page 211 - Science at the nanoscale

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Chapter Nine
Future Trends
So where will nanotechnology lead us in the coming years? Will
nanotechnology become a mature and well-accepted technology,
or will there be disappointment due to unrealised promises? Arie
1
Rip, in his article The Folk Theories of Nanotechnology, suggests that
nanotechnology could follow a narrative of initial enthusiasm fol-
2
lowed by subsequent disillusionment. The Gartner Group depict
this cycle of hype as initially accompanied by a flurry of publicity
and unrealistic expectations, leading to a peak of inflated expecta-
tions. This is inevitably followed by disappointment and loss of
public interest as the technology falls into a trough of disillusion-
ment. Only then does the technology start to deliver, with a slope
of enlightenment leading to a plateau of productivity, in which the
technology does deliver real benefits, albeit less dramatic than
those initially promised in the first stage of the cycle. Rip iden-
tifies the key issue as the degree to which it is regarded as accept-
able to exaggerate claims about the impact of a technology. He
observes a dichotomy in strategies between the USA and Europe,
with advocates of nanotechology in Europe making much more
modest claims, thus positioning themselves better for the after- ch09
math of a bubble bursting.
Nevertheless, the concern of most nanoscientists is what real
impact nanotechnology can deliver to improve the lives of
ordinary people. How far are we away from that plateau of pro-
ductivity? Since nanotechnology encompasses a diverse range of
1 Arie Rip, “The Folk Theories of Nanotechnology”, Science as Culture 15, 349
(2006).
2 http://www.gartner.com/
Science at the Nanoscale: An Introductory Textbook
by Chin Wee Shong, Sow Chorng Haur & Andrew T S Wee
Copyright c
2010 by Pan Stanford Publishing Pte Ltd
www.panstanford.com
978-981-4241-03-8