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Chapter 3 • Solar Power in Europe: Status and Outlook 47
FIGURE 3.8 The development of EU-28 power output by different technologies from 2010 to 2016. Agora
Energiewende and Sandbag (2017); Copyright of SolarPower Europe 2017.
it has not been mirrored by a corresponding reduction of inflexible generation in the Euro-
pean power mix. Hard coal and lignite still represented 22% of the total power generation
in 2016, while nuclear produced 26% of the electricity in the same year. The development
of EU-28 power output by different technologies from 2010 to 2016 is given in Fig. 3.8.
3.3.2 Accelerate the Energy Transition via Reliable and Ambitious Long-
Term Signals
Once the European solar market passed the symbolic mark of 100 GW of installed capacity
in the spring of 2016, solar become one of the lowest cost power generation technologies
in Europe. In the German solar tender in February 2017, the lowest awarded bid was 6 euro
−1
cents (KW h) . Assuming the same system prices and financing conditions but much bet-
ter irradiation in southern countries, solar could generate power between 3 and 4 euro
−1
cents (KW h) . The theoretical levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) in different European
countries based on German Q2/2017 tender results is given in Fig. 3.9.
If Europe would build on its solar experience and utilize low cost solar, SolarPower
Europe estimates that the solar capacity in Europe could easily be expanded to 375 GW by
2030 and cover up to 15% of Europe’s power needs. Assuming SolarPower Europe’s medium
market growth scenario takes place, as expected up to 2021, it would require annual addi-
tions of 23 GW in each of the following years until 2030 to meet the aim of 375 GW. To pro-
vide the necessary signals to the investment and financing community long-term targets
are needed.
The 27% renewable energy target by 2030 as suggested by the European Commission
falls short of ambition, as it would translate into a fivefold market contraction for renew-
ables between 2020 and 2030, as compared to the volumes expected to be deployed in the
previous decade 2010–20.
