Page 47 - A Comprehensive Guide to Solar Energy Systems

42 A COMPREHEnSIVE GUIDE TO SOLAR EnERGy SySTEMS

in a first technology neutral renewables tender in 2017, but after the rules were
changed, at the second 5 GW auction, solar outcompeted wind and won 3.9 GW.
• EU 2020 targets: A number of EU governments still have some way to go to meet
their national binding EU 2000 renewable energy sources (RES) targets, are or will be,
strengthening their support for solar, as they have realized that the technology is both
very popular and low-cost and is a means to increase their renewables share.
• Low solar cost triggering demand in new and dormant markets: The low cost of solar
PV is attracting European countries to embrace solar power that haven’t been very
active in field, such as Belarus and Russia. In other European markets, where the solar
development stopped with the termination of early subsidy programs, direct bilateral
power purchase agreements (PPAs) will compete with wholesale power markets.
Finally, cheap solar is now increasingly able to outcompete other renewables in
technology open support programs, like in the netherlands, where in April 2017 solar
PV accounted for 2.65 GW, or nearly 70% of the preassigned capacity of the first round
of the SDE+ Program for large scale renewable energy projects.
• Regulation: The European Commission, as well as national governments, has begun
addressing the needs of a flexible renewable energy system, working on a new
electricity market design and implementing new tools and regulations to overcome
barriers that have inhibited solar power’s growth possibilities in recent years. These
include rules for self-consumption in France or lacking guidelines for solar power
sharing and on-site community solar power in Germany.

3.2.2 Solar Markets’ Growth Scenarios

SolarPower Europe expects in its most probable medium scenario a strong 31% growth
jump in 2017 that will somewhat flatten over the coming years, with annual installations
to increase up to 15.7 GW in 2021. There are also models for high and low scenarios of
solar developments in Europe. The results of the models shows very wide spreads for the
coming 5 years—and over time it is increasingly widening. Why? Because the way solar will
grow in Europe fully depends on policy makers in Brussels and the European countries.
If Europe fully embraces the enticing business case of low-cost solar, in 2020 the market
could be nearly as big as in the record year of 2012, reaching 22.4 GW. This high scenario
would require elimination of any trade barriers (as in Turkey or in the EU) and any taxes on
self-consumption. If the European Commission’s Clean Energy for All Europeans Proposal
is quickly passed but with slight improvements, including a higher renewable energy tar-
get for 2030, as called for by SolarPower Europe, and adapted accordingly by the EU mem-
ber states, these measures could even propel the European market to an annual level of
over 27 GW in 2021. Conversely, if the bulk of European governments completely disregard
solar’s potential and the benefits to their citizens, and do not abandon coal quickly and
continues to build new nuclear plants the low scenario will pay out. While on this topic
it makes no economic sense to propose the building of expensive nuclear plants as has
recently been in the United Kingdom, where a 35-year power supply contract was signed