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6. Forecasting Methods for Different Forecast Horizons 93

0.6

0.5

nRMSE 0.4

0.3

0.2
Persistence
Scaled persistence
ARMA
0.1
1 2 3 4 5 6
Forecast horizon (hours)
FIGURE 3.7
Relative root mean square error of forecasts (persistence, scaled persistence,
autoregressive moving average) depending on the forecast horizon.

6.1 TEMPORAL HORIZON AND RESOLUTION e GENERALITIES ABOUT
SOLAR IRRADIANCE FORECASTING

The time scale is linked to the type of application and its time constants (see Figs. 3.3
and 3.8) [4].

FIGURE 3.8
Typical target applications for solar irradiance forecasting and their respective and
temporal scale. The blue area (dark gray in print versions) depicts the range for which the
use of numerical weather prediction models is appropriate.
D. Heinemann, E. Lorenz, M. Girodo, Forecasting of Solar Radiation. Solar Energy Resource Management for
Electricity Generation from Local Level to Global Scale. Nova Science Publishers, New York, 2006.