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10 CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION

identified and in the real world this problem structuring phase can be difficult,
complex and time-consuming. In our College example we would need first to put
the problem into a wider context. How long has this problem been going on?
When does it happen – during the day, at weekends, during semester? Is this
just the President’s opinion or is there general acceptance that the problem is
real? We might at this stage want to collect some preliminary data to help scope
the problem or we may want to use some qualitative MS tools (that we discuss
later) to help shape our thinking on exactly what the problem is. It is then
important to define the problem to be investigated and agree the overall purpose
and specific aims of any analysis that we might undertake. In the College
example we may set out the following:
How serious is the traffic problem on campus?
What is causing/contributing to the problem?
What could be done about the problem?
It is critical that the client – the College President – is involved in this process.
Even though they may have no expertise in MS, they are the client for the project
and it is important that they are involved in this stage to agree the problem so that
MS can then go on to solve the right problem.
Modelling and Analysis

Once we have an understanding of the wider problem context and the specific
aims of the project we can begin our analysis of the problem. Such analysis is
likely to be a combination of two types: quantitative analysis and qualitative
analysis. These are sometimes referred to as hard MS and soft MS respectively
and a good management scientist will need to develop skills in both. Soft MS
relies on a range of primarily qualitative approaches to decision making and
focuses on the people making a decision rather than on the decision problem
itself. The role of the management scientist in such a situation is primarily in
facilitating a critical, but open, discussion of differing viewpoints and perceptions
of the decision problem. Soft MS relies on verbal problem descriptions and makes
extensive use of diagrams and pictorial presentations. Such soft methods help the
decision makers to develop a shared understanding of the problem they face and
to agree on a consensus course of action to which they are committed. Hard MS,
on the other hand, tends to focus primarily on the decision problem and applies
mathematical and statistical techniques to finding a solution to the problem. In
this text we are concerned primarily with quantitative analysis, hard MS, and
through the text we shall be introducing a variety of techniques that are commonly
used – typically referred to as models. A manager can increase their decision-making
effectiveness by learning more about quantitative methodology and models and by
better understanding their contribution to the decision-making process. A manager
who is knowledgeable in quantitative decision-making models is in a much better
position to compare and evaluate both the qualitative and quantitative sources of
recommendations and ultimately to combine the two sources in order to make the best
possible decision. The skills of the quantitative approach can be learned only by studying
the assumptions and methods of management science. In the case of the College traffic
problem we may end up analyzing the situation in a number of different ways:
l Undertaking a quantitative analysis of past and current traffic flows on campus.
l Producing quantitative forecasts of likely future traffic flows.
l Determining the optimum amount of traffic that the campus can handle.
l Analyzing the effect of alternative traffic schemes on campus.

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