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CONSIDERING TIME–COST TRADE-OFFS 397
a. Calculate the expected activity completion times and the variance for each
activity.
b. An analyst determined that the critical path consists of activities B–D–F. Calculate the
expected project completion time and the variance.
11 Suppose that the following estimates of activity times (in weeks) were provided for the
network shown in Problem 6.
Activity Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic
A 4.0 5.0 6.0
B 2.5 3.0 3.5
C 6.0 7.0 8.0
D 5.0 5.5 9.0
E 5.0 7.0 9.0
F 2.0 3.0 4.0
G 8.0 10.0 12.0
H 6.0 7.0 14.0
What is the probability that the project will be completed
a. Within 21 weeks?
b. Within 22 weeks?
c. Within 25 weeks?
12 Andreas Bierhoff is in charge of planning and coordinating next spring’s sales
management training programme for his company. Andreas listed the following activity
information for this project.
Immediate Time (weeks)
Activity Description Predecessor Optimistic Most Probable Pessimistic
A Plan topic — 1.5 2.0 2.5
B Obtain speakers A 2.0 2.5 6.0
C List meeting locations — 1.0 2.0 3.0
D Select location C 1.5 2.0 2.5
E Finalize speaker travel plans B, D 0.5 1.0 1.5
F Make final check with E 1.0 2.0 3.0
speakers
G Prepare and mail B, D 3.0 3.5 7.0
brochure
H Take reservations G 3.0 4.0 5.0
I Handle last-minute F, H 1.5 2.0 2.5
details
a. Draw a project network.
b. Prepare an activity schedule.
c. What are the critical activities and what is the expected project completion time?
d. If Andreas wants a 0.99 probability of completing the project on time, how far ahead of
the scheduled meeting date should he begin working on the project?
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