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13.11 Power maneuvering      185




                  As the number of data points, N, increases, the estimates of (a 1 ,a 2 ) converge to the
                  actual values with least error. Once the AR coefficients are determined, the resulting
                  model can be used to compute the impulse response of the system. The above dis-
                  cussion shows the basic idea of time series modeling from observed data. Recursive
                  parameter estimation techniques are available to compute the (n+1)-th order model
                  from the n-th order model; these do not require the inversion of large matrices. These
                  are computationally fast and more accurate than methods using direct matrix
                  inversion [12].
                     An AR analysis of neutron power fluctuations using average power range
                  monitor (APRM) detector signals from two operating BWRs provides the power-
                  to-reactivity impulse response. The developed modeled may be used directly to
                  compute this impulse response in a time recursive fashion. The impulse response
                  may then be used to estimate a decay ratio of the neutron power response to a change
                  in the reactivity.
                     The decay ratio is defined as the ratio between successive positive peaks or suc-
                  cessive negative peaks calculated from the impulse response function. For stable
                  reactor operation the decay ratio must be less than 1, and must be less than a value
                  specified by the regulatory agency. An increased power-to-flow ratio indicates a sys-
                  tem with a smaller stability margin. A case study [10] provides a stochastic time
                  series model of a measured neutron signal. The developed model was then used
                  to generate the response to an impulse change in the reactivity as its input.
                     Fig. 13.11 shows impulse response results for the case study. Data from two
                  BWRs operating at different power-to-flow ratios were processed using the AR
                  model. The upper plot in Fig. 13.11 shows the power-to-reactivity impulse response
                  of a BWR-4 plant operating at 100% power and 100% recirculation flow rate. The
                  calculated decay ratio is, DR¼0.024. The lower plot in Fig. 13.11 shows the impulse
                  response of a BWR-4 plant operating at 100% power and 65% recirculation flow rate
                  (this is a test case). The calculated decay ratio is, DR¼0.37.
                     The decay ratio of the impulse response function is less than one, and thus
                  both the systems are stable. As the power-to-flow ratio increases this stability margin
                  decreases, indicating a change in the reactor operating characteristic. The flow-to-
                  power ratio for the two operating cases are 100% and 65%, respectively. Both BWRs
                  are rated around 1100 MWe. This method of stability monitoring is recommended
                  as a criterion applied to operating reactors by the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory
                  Commission [13].



                  13.11 Power maneuvering

                  The scenario following opening of the main steam valve in an uncontrolled BWR is
                  as follows:

                  •  Main steam valve opening "
                  •  Steam flow to turbine "
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