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196    CHAPTER 9 Calibration of CGM systems




                         the performance metrics obtained with the original calibration, the Bayesian algo-
                         rithm with one calibration per day, one calibration every 2 days and one calibration
                         every 4 days. Columns 6e8 report the corresponding p-values by the Wilcoxon
                         signed-rank test. The indexes reported in Table 9.1 show that the Bayesian calibra-
                         tion algorithm improves sensor accuracy compared to manufacturer calibration,
                         independently from the frequency of calibrations. The improvement achieved
                         with the Bayesian algorithm is statistically significant (P <.05) for all the
                         considered metrics and for all the calibration frequencies tested. In addition, no
                         statistically significant difference (P >.05) is found between the performance
                         metrics distributions obtained with the Bayesian algorithm by using different
                         calibration frequencies, that is, one per day versus one every 2 days versus one every
                         4 days (P not shown).
                            It is interesting to consider also an extreme scenario where no calibration, except
                         the initial one, is performed. In this zero calibrations scenario, the calibration param-
                         eters are estimated about 2 h after sensor insertion and used for the entire monitoring
                         session without any further update. As the estimation is performed in the Bayesian
                         setting exploiting only a pair of SMBG samples, it strongly relies on prior informa-
                         tion. In this case, the following median values are obtained: 12.03% MARD, 85.67%
                         PAGE, and 85.62% CEG-A. Although these indexes are still slightly better than
                         those of the original manufacturer calibration (see Table 9.1), no statistically
                         significant differences are observed. Indeed, the larger the number of calibration
                         references (as moving from day 1 to day 7), the more the posterior distributions
                         differentiate from the priors. This phenomenon is depicted in Fig. 9.11, where the
                         posterior distributions of the three calibration parameters are reported, centered
                         with respect to the a priori expected values. We can observe that, not surprisingly,
                         as moving from day 1 to day 7, that is, as the number of calibration references
                         increases, the posterior distributions differentiate from the priors (this is more
                         evident for parameters b and s 2 ). Notably, the prior distributions are quite flat,
                         much more than the posterior distributions. This suggests that the information
                         brought into the Bayesian estimation process by the calibration references plays a
                         key role in determining the parameter values and that the use of only one calibration
                         reference would let the estimate to excessively rely on prior information.




                         Conclusions
                         Most of the commercially available CGM sensors need to be calibrated to convert
                         the raw measurements to glucose values. To preserve sensor accuracy, manufacturer
                         instructions recommend a calibration at least every 12 h. Simple linear regression
                         techniques have been extensively employed for calibration since the commercializa-
                         tion of the first CGM devices. Although their simplicity and ease of implementation
                         in wearable devices represent the fundamental strength of these approaches, sensor
                         inaccuracy problems and the need for frequent recalibrations called for the develop-
                         ment of more sophisticated techniques.
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