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Project Ideation • 79

The FORECAST does not directly
affect the PAYOFF, only the
DECISION Actual
Forecast Snowfall
Level
• Calls for much snow • Higher than average
• Calls for little snow • Lower than average

The two things that actually
Decision Payoff affect the PAYOFF are the
ACTUAL SNOWFALL
• Buy plow contract LEVEL and the
• Shovel yourself out DECISION itself.
Payoff table
Key
Decision Outcome Payoff
Chance node
Hire plow Much snow Comfort, high cost
Decision node Hire plow Little snow Comfort, high cost
Value node Shovel self Much snow Discomfort, low cost
Shovel self Little snow Comfort, low cost Best payoff

Figure 5.3
Influence diagram example.
Force Field analysis

One of the best tools used to make decisions on green projects is force field
analysis, developed by Kurt Lewin, an American social scientist. The rea-
son that it is so effective as a decision-making tool for green projects is that
the basis of the force field analysis is that the forces opposed to the project
are measured against those that support the project. All forces should be
considered including environmental responsibility (see Figure 5.4).
There are also ways to weight or numerically prioritize the forces to be
able to make a better decision. It is also a better decision because all of the
forces, for and against, are identified. So aside from the high-level project
description, how the project fits in with the business strategy of the orga-
nization, and any other information collected in relationship to past proj-
ects, green intent is considered as an input to project ideation. The output,
then, would be a project charter that includes the green component.

Cost-Benefit analysis
Probably one of the more important decision-making tools for including
green components is the cost-benefit analysis. The reason that it is such an
important tool is within the structure of the analysis—green benefits as
well as green costs can be documented. In March 2009, Sheila Blake of the
city of Houston presented a cost-benefit analysis for Cool Roof to the EPA