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264    CHAPTER 11 The reliability design of mechanical system




                                             Load (external stress, internal stress)
                                Component             F = f (t)
                                 (material)








                                                              Failure mode        : malfunction
                                                              Failure mechanism : fracture
                                                              Failure site
                         FIGURE 11.5
                         Two elements of failure mechanics, stress, and materials.


                            Additionally, there are two other issues involved in establishing verification
                         specifications. First of all, we think that new products can check the combinations
                         of specifications used for similar products. This is a misunderstanding. Potential
                         problems inherent in new products cannot be identified using old specifications.
                         The new product incorporates innovative structures, new materials, and different
                         software for upgrading performance and decreasing cost. These cannot be adequately
                         tested using existing specifications. In terms of reliability, adopting new structures
                         may alter failure mechanisms or introduce new ones, as two elements of failure
                         mechanics in Figure 11.5, stress and materials, have changed.
                            By using the previous specifications, new failure mechanisms are not easy to be
                         identified for products that have the design modifications. In addition to updating the
                         specifications, we should also consider what new testing might be effective. For
                         example, is it possible to apply the test specifications for the Boeing 777 fuselage
                         made of aluminum alloys than to the Boeing 787 Dreamliner fuselage, which incor-
                         porates new materials, like CFRP? Obviously, we know that the previous test specs
                         would be improper.
                            The other issue is that reliability quantitative specifications include estimating
                         item lifetime. Accident caused by material degradation during use could tarnish
                         the company’s reputation. But most people consider this task beyond the scope of
                         possibility. Generally, obtaining quantitative results in reliability analysis is very dif-
                         ficult. Reliability specialist Patrick O’Connor wrote in Practical Reliability Engi-
                         neering that there are basically three kinds of situations—small, moderately large,
                         and very large number of factors and interactions [9]. A small number of factors
                         can be predicted with the physical model. A very large number can be predicted with
                         statistical models. Predictive power diminishes, however, in the case of a moderately
                         large number of factors pertaining to reliability.
                            Reliability prediction is a necessary task to be undertaken. Let’s look at a product
                         in the standpoint of reliability problems. We know that there are a few sites in
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