Page 52 - Introduction to Petroleum Engineering

36 THE FUTURE OF ENERGY

World proved reserves
2000 8000
1800
7000
1600
6000
1400
Crude oil, billion barrels 1200 Crude oil 4000 Natural gas, trillion cubic feet
5000
1000
Natural gas
800
3000
600
2000
400
200 1000

0 0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
End of year

FIGURE 2.9 World proved reserves from 2000 to 2014. (Source: U.S. Energy Information
Administration Petroleum (2015).)

2.5 PEAK OIL

Efforts to change from an energy mix that depends on fossil fuels to a more sustain-
able energy mix are motivated by environmental concerns and by the concern that
oil production is finite and may soon be coming to an end. M. King Hubbert studied
the production of oil in the contiguous United States (excluding Alaska and Hawaii)
as a nonrenewable resource. Hubbert (1956) found that oil production in this limited
geographic region could be modeled as a function of time. The annual production
of oil increased steadily until a maximum was reached and then began to decline as it
became more difficult to find and produce. The maximum oil production is considered
a peak. Hubbert used his method to predict peak oil production in the contiguous
United States, which excludes Alaska and Hawaii. Hubbert predicted that the peak
would occur between 1965 and 1970. Hubbert then used the methodology that he
developed for the contiguous United States to predict the peak of global oil produc-
tion. He predicted that global oil production would peak around 2000 at a peak rate of
12–13 billion barrels per year or approximately 33–36 million barrels per day.
Crude oil production in the contiguous United States peaked at 9.4 million barrels
per day in 1970. A second peak for the United States occurred in 1988 when Alaskan
oil production peaked at 2.0 million barrels per day. The second peak is not consid-
ered the correct peak to compare to Hubbert’s prediction because Hubbert restricted
his analysis to the production from the contiguous United States. Many modern
experts consider the 1970 oil peak to be a validation of Hubbert’s methodology and
have tried to apply the methodology to global oil production. Analyses of historical