Page 57 - Introduction to Petroleum Engineering

FUTURE ENERGY OPTIONS 41

1.0

0.9
Fraction of total US energy consumption 0.6 Fossil
0.8
0.7

Nuclear
0.5
Renewable
0.4
0.3

0.2
0.1
0
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
FIGURE 2.14 Fraction of US annual energy consumption by source, 1950–2014.
(Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration (2015).)

combustible fuels. Figure 2.14 shows the fraction of annual energy consumption in
the United States since 1950. Fossil energy includes coal, oil, and natural gas; nuclear
energy refers to fission energy; and renewable energy includes hydroelectric, wind,
and solar. The next step in decarbonization would be a transition to natural gas.
A greater reliance on natural gas rather than wood, coal, or oil would reduce the
emission of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere.
The twenty‐first‐century energy mix will depend on technological advances,
including some advances that cannot be anticipated, and on choices made by society.
There are competing visions for reaching a sustainable energy mix. Some people see
an urgent need to replace fossil fuels with sustainable/renewable energy sources
because human activity is driving climate change. Others believe that it is necessary
to replace fossil fuels with sustainable/renewable energy sources, but the need is not
urgent. They argue that the economic health of society outweighs possible climate
effects. If the energy transition is too fast, it could significantly damage the global
economy. If the energy transition is too slow, damage to the environment could be
irreversible.
The “Goldilocks Policy for Energy Transition” is designed to establish a middle
ground between these competing visions. We need the duration of the energy
transition to be just right; that is, we need to adopt a reasonable plan of action that
reduces uncertainty with predictable public policy and reduces environmental impact.
Based on historical data, we could plan an energy transition to a sustainable
energy mix by the middle of the twenty‐first century. The European Union is
operating on this timetable with the EU Supergrid. In addition, natural gas could