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FUTURE ENERGY OPTIONS 39
2.6 FUTURE ENERGY OPTIONS

Future energy demand is expected to grow substantially as global population increases
and developing nations seek a higher quality of life (Fanchi and Fanchi, 2016). Social
concern about nuclear waste and proliferation of nuclear weapons is a significant
deterrent to reliance on nuclear fission power. These concerns are alleviated to some
extent by the safety record of the modern nuclear power industry. Society’s inability
to resolve the issues associated with nuclear fusion makes fusion an unlikely contrib-
utor to the energy mix until at least the middle of the twenty‐first century. If nuclear
fusion power is allowed to develop and eventually becomes commercially viable, it
could become the primary energy source. Until then, the feasible sources of energy for
use in the future energy mix are fossil fuels, nuclear fission, and renewable energy.
Concerns about the environmental impact of combustible fuels and security of the
energy supply are encouraging a movement away from fossil fuels. Political insta-
bility in countries that export oil and gas, the finite size of known oil and gas supplies,
increases in fossil fuel prices, and decreases in renewable energy costs, such as wind
energy costs, are motivating the adoption of renewable energy. On the other hand,
the development of technology that makes unconventional sources of fossil fuels
economically competitive is encouraging continued use of fossil fuels, especially as
the natural gas infrastructure is improved. These conflicting factors have an impact
on the rate of transition from fossil fuels to a sustainable energy mix. A key decision
facing society is to determine the rate of transition.

2.6.1 Goldilocks Policy for Energy Transition
Fanchi and Fanchi (2015) introduced a Goldilocks policy for determining the rate of
transition from one energy source to another. An appropriate rate can be estimated
using the historical energy consumption data from the United States shown in
Figure 2.12 (US EIA Annual Energy Review, 2001). The United States is a devel-
oped country with a history of energy transitions over the past few centuries.
The data in Figure 2.12 are presented in Figure 2.13 as the percent of total US
energy consumption by source. Wood was the principal energy source when the
United States was founded in the eighteenth century. Coal began to take over
the energy market in the first half of the nineteenth century and peaked in the
early twentieth century. Oil began to compete with coal during the latter half of
the nineteenth century and became the largest component of the energy mix by the
middle of the twentieth century. The period of time from the appearance of an
energy source in the market place to its peak can be seen in Figure 2.13 for coal
and oil. Historically, energy transition periods in the United States last approxi-
mately 60–70 years.
Our future energy mix depends on choices we make, which depends, in turn, on
energy policy. Several criteria need to be considered when establishing energy policy.
We need to consider the capacity of the energy mix, its cost, safety, reliability, and
effect on the environment. We need to know that the energy mix can meet our needs
(capacity) and be available when it is needed (reliability). The energy mix should