Page 305 - Pipelines and Risers

278 Chapter 16

Individual (1" Party) Risk is the analysis of the risk to the workers that are employed
directly or indirectly by the Owner of the pipeline;
Environmental Pollution Risks (loss of containment) is the exposure to risk of the
surrounding ecosystem;
Financial Risks misks of material loss, loss of revenue, cost due to societal and individual
risks as well as environmental risks).
The risk analysis in this chapter considers the risks posed by and to the pipeline after the line
is commissioned.

16.13 Risk Analysis Concepts
General
Risk analysis is a structured process that attempts to identify both the extent and likelihood of
consequences associated with hazards. This analysis can be undertaken in either a qualitative
or quantitative manner.

For the purpose of this chapter risk is defined as the probability of an event that causes a loss
and the magnitude of that loss. The risks associated with the transportation of hazardous
product by a pipeline, is the potential of the hazardous product to cause a loss, if it were
released. By definition, risk is increased when either the probability of the event increases or
when the magnitude of the loss (the consequence of the event) increases.

Methodology
In determining risk an analytical approach is required to provide the rigour and justification
necessary in order to certify pipelines. Three principal features of this analytical process can
be defined, these are; cause analysis, consequence analysis and initiating event. Cause
analysis is the determination of the probability of certain scenarios that lead to failure.
Consequence analysis is the assessment of consequence loads (impacts of an initiating event).
The key aspect of this analysis model is the initiating event as this is the outset of any
analysis. Initiating event can be described as a condition from which a loss will originate, in
pipeline terms this is usually identified as a hole.

After completing an investigation into initiating events, cause analysis should then follow; the
final stage would be an analysis of consequences. An outline of the methodology is given in
Figure 16.1.