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                                                                                     Failures Resulting from Static Loading  251
                                               Failure will occur when the stress is greater than the strength, when  ¯n < 1, or when
                                               y < 0.


                                                                                       2                  2
                                                                        ln μ n − ln 1 + C    ln μ n / 1 + C
                                                       0 − μ y   μ y                   n                  n
                                                   z =       =−     =−                   ˙ =−                  (5–44)
                                                                            ln 1 + C n           ln 1 + C n
                                                         ˆ σ y   σ y                2                   2
                                               Solving for μ n gives

                                                                                        .              C n

                                                μ n =¯n = exp −z ln 1 + C n 2  + ln 1 + C 2 n  = exp C n − z +  (5–45)


                                                                                                        2
                                               Equations (5–42) and (5–45) are remarkable for several reasons:
                                               • They relate design factor  ¯n to the reliability goal (through z) and the coefficients of
                                                 variation of strength and stress.
                                               • They are not functions of the means of stress and strength.
                                               • They estimate the design factor necessary to achieve the reliability goal before
                                                 decisions involving means are made. The C S depends slightly on the particular
                                                 material. The C σ has the coefficient of variation (COV) of the load, and that is gen-
                                                 erally given.






                             EXAMPLE 5–8       A round cold-drawn 1018 steel rod has an 0.2 percent yield strength S y = N(78.4, 5.90)
                                               kpsi and is to be subjected to a static axial load of P = N(50, 4.1) kip. What value of
                                               the design factor  ¯n corresponds to a reliability of 0.999 against yielding (z =−3.09)?
                                               Determine the corresponding diameter of the rod.
                                    Solution   C S = 5.90/78.4 = 0.0753, and

                                                                                P    4P
                                                                              =   =
                                                                                A    πd 2
                                               Since the COV of the diameter is an order of magnitude less than the COV of the load
                                               or strength, the diameter is treated deterministically:

                                                                                  4.1
                                                                        C σ = C P =   = 0.082
                                                                                  50
                                               From Eq. (5–42),

                                                                                   2
                                                                                               2
                                                                                                     2
                                                         1     1   [1  ( 3.09) (0.0753 )][1  ( 3.09) (0.082 )]
                                                                            2
                                                     n                                                       1.416
                                                                                       2
                                                                                 2
                                                                       1  ( 3.09) (0.0753 )
                                               The diameter is found deterministically:
                                     Answer
                                                                     4P ¯        4(50 000)
                                                              d =         =                 = 1.072 in
                                                                    πS y /¯n  π(78 400)/1.416
                                                                     ¯
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