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11 - PROJECT RISK MANAGEMENT

11.3.2 Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis: Tools and Techniques

The tools and techniques for performing qualitative risk analysis in Section 11.3.2 of the PMBOK Guide
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are applicable to performing qualitative risk analysis for software projects with the additional considerations in
Section 11.3.2.7 of this Software Extension.

11.3.2.1 Risk Probability and Impact Assessment

See Section 11.3.2.1 of the PMBOK Guide.
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11.3.2.2 Probability and Impact Matrix

See Section 11.3.2.2 of the PMBOK Guide.
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11.3.2.3 Risk Data Quality Assessment

See Section 11.3.2.3 of the PMBOK Guide. 11
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11.3.2.4 Risk Categorization

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See Section 11.3.2.4 of the PMBOK Guide.

11.3.2.5 Risk Urgency Assessment

See Section 11.3.2.5 of the PMBOK Guide.
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11.3.2.6 Expert Judgment

See Section 11.3.2.6 of the PMBOK Guide.
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11.3.2.7 Additional Considerations

The following considerations also apply. Qualitative analyses of risk are, by definition, difficult or impossible
to quantify and are usually based on subjective and limited experience. Accurately estimating the quantitative
probability of a risk requires a statistically significant experience base of similar projects (similar in complexity,
criticality, infrastructure and tools, team experience, and organizational process resources). In practice, only very
large organizations are able to accumulate experience bases and, for competitive reasons, are reluctant to share it
with external stakeholders and other organizations. Often, experience concerning the rate of work completion (i.e.,
velocity) is not available until the project is well underway when there is less time to exert corrective measures.

Additional causal analysis (e.g. asking “why” repeatedly) can help identify root causes of identified risks.
Qualitative risk analysis benefits from recent experience (e.g., for similar infrastructure and team members

©2013 Project Management Institute. Software Extension to the PMBOK Guide Fifth Edition 201
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